Oakdale, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

719
FXUS63 KMPX 141135
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions return to end the week with temperatures
  topping out in the mid to upper 50s for the first half of the
  weekend.

- Unsettled, very active upper-level pattern to bring the return
  of precipitation chances across the Upper Midwest by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Rain has come to an end early this morning with rainfall totals
ranging from around 0.40-0.70" near the Minnesota/South Dakota
border to just west of a line from St. Cloud to New Ulm. Locales
east of this line picked up near 0.25" before amounts quickly
taper off to a few hundredths from the eastern Twin Cities
metro into Wisconsin. Persistent stratus continues to wrap
around the backside of the occluded surface low now centered
over northwestern Illinois. Visibilities have improved some as
winds have increased (that or the issuance of the Dense Fog
Advisory was enough to scare the fog away), but patchy dense fog
will remain possible through much of this morning. Overall,
today will be overcast with temperatures running a few degrees
above normal in the upper 40s. The above normal temperatures
will continue as we end the week with highs well into the 50s to
near 60 Saturday. A quick moving system will make its way
through northern Minnesota late in the day Saturday into Sunday.
The MPX area looks to miss out on any precip from this, but
southerly winds will be breezy during the afternoon ahead of the
associated cold front.

The second half of the weekend will be slightly cooler behind the
front, but the real cool down looks to arrive late in the
forecast period. As has been mentioned in many previous
discussions, a much more unsettled pattern is on the horizon.
Guidance continues to suggest that a cutoff low will make itself
at home somewhere in the Central Plains for the better part of
next week. PoPs have increased quite a bit for the
Monday/Tuesday time frame with chances now up in the 60-80%
range. This round of precip is associated with the initial
cutoff low ejecting out of the Southern Plains and its
associated deepening surface low that is progged to end up
somewhere in Iowa/Nebraska by Tuesday. There is medium
confidence that this first round of precip will be of the liquid
variety as temperatures remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s. How
everything evolves from there is yet to be determined as there
are many moving parts and things that could go `wrong` from a
forecast perspective as the next phase of the system progresses.
But for now, keep an eye on future forecasts and know that next
week will be wet, windy, and much colder than we`ve seen so far
this month.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Fog and low stratus continue to sit across MN/WI this morning
and will remain in place for much of the day, barely increasing
from IFR to MVFR levels. Most areas will remain as MVFR through
tonight, though some pockets of VFR may develop but will be
short-lived. Another round of low stratus and/or fog will
develop tonight through Friday morning, with the determining
factor being wind speed. Should winds go calm, fog will be more
likely. If winds stay elevated at near 5kts, low stratus will
prevail. MVFR conditions are likely with IFR-or-worse conditions
possible.

KMSP...IFR ceilings are likely to remain in place through late
morning, with a slow rise through the low-range MVFR levels
expected this afternoon through this evening. Another round of
pre-dawn fog and low stratus is expected. At this point, have
held conditions in MVFR range but worse conditions are certainly
possible for the Friday morning push. VFR conditions are then
expected by midday Friday and onward.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 15G25-30kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC